RETREATING HIMALAYAN GLACIERS: A GATEWAY TO SUFFERINGS

Pradeep Dutta

Nations go to war over oil, but there are substitutes for oil. How much more intractable might wars be that are fought over water, an ever-scarcer commodity for which there is no substitute?

Former US Senator Paul Simon

WHILE many analysts believe that the addition of resource-based conflicts and disputes emanating from environmental issues represent a significant departure from the traditional approach to security, this indeed is an extension of the already long list of security dilemmas. In the context of the complex and multidimensional history of India-Pakistan conflicts vis-à-vis Kashmir, the addendum of an issue which has long been considered as that of ‘low politics’ has recently transformed the ever-existing disputes over water-sharing into a ‘high politics’ realm.

It means that the South Asian region, which is still mired in the era of geopolitics, has to address another crucial area i.e. eco-politics. The earlier warning of Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf that "the distribution of Indus Waters contained the germs of future conflict between India and Pakistan" is being echoed by recent studies by South Asian experts, of which, some have even predicted that the water politics between India and Pakistan is going to replace Kashmir as the ‘core issue’ between the two countries.

The water politics essentially entails the disputes between India and Pakistan over the sharing of Indus Basin Waters, construction of dams, and divergent interpretation of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) 1960. Kashmir - the Himalayan state - is the divided heart of the subcontinent, with ventricles beating in both India and Pakistan. All the head works of the Indus Basin Waters are situated in the disputed state, making geo-strategy a vital concern for both India and Pakistan on the one hand, and a matter of deep apprehension for the Kashmiris on the other.

The growing eco-pessimism in South Asia, driven by alarming indicators of water scarcity, damage to ecosystem, including threat to underwater life, extinction of certain species and depletion of glaciers, make environment and ecology a case of shared responsibility," says Maj Gen Goverdhan Singh Jamwal (retd), an environmentalist from Jammu region.

At present, shrinking of glaciers is the major area of concern, which has contributed to the plummeting of water tables and drying of breadbaskets. It is a known fact that Himalayan glaciers are the main source of water not only to J&K, but also India and Pakistan. Over the years due to global warming and rising of pollution level, the glaciers have started shrinking. This has led to depletion of water levels – a main cause of concern for the subcontinent. As glacier water flows dwindle, the energy potential of hydroelectric power will decrease, causing problems for industry, while reduced irrigation means lower crop production and problems at inter and intra-state level for both India and Pakistan.

The first set of alarm bells came with the findings of WWF’s new study —An Overview of Glaciers, Glacier Retreat and Subsequent Impacts in Nepal, India and China – which explained how the Himalayan glaciers were receding 10-15 metres per year on average and that the rate was to accelerate further as global warming increases. Jennifer Morgan, Head, WWF’s Global Climate Change Programme, in the report states that the rapid melting of Himalayan glaciers will first increase the volume of water in rivers, causing widespread flooding. "But in a few decades this situation will change and the water levels in rivers will decline, meaning massive economic and environmental problems for people in western China, Nepal, and Northern India," she warns.

Endorsing these views, scientists from Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO), Ahmedabad, studying the Himalayan glaciers, fear an acute shortage of natural drinking water in two basins located in Himachal Pradesh (India) and other North Indian states due to melting of glaciers owing to various environmental reasons. The study carried out in Beas and Bapsa basins of Himachal Pradesh from 1962 to 2001 – using remote sensing satellites – indicates rapid decline of glacial waters due to environmental reasons. The investigations have revealed that 19.10 sq kms of glacial waters stored in the 19 glaciers in 1962 has been reduced to 14.71 sq kms in 2001, respectively an overall loss of 23 per cent between 1962 and 2001.

Besides North Indian states, Pakistan too is likely to face a major water crisis, flood and drought, in the next 20 to 50 years, owing to unusually fast depletion of the Himalayan glaciers, that feed into seven of Asia’s greatest rivers - the Ganges, Indus, Brahmaputra, Salween, Mekong, Yangtze and Huange He. The Himalayan glacier that contains the world’s third largest ice mass after Antartica and Greenland, contributes over 80 per cent water to river Indus that feeds more than 65 per cent of Pakistan’s agriculture. Therefore, its depletion has further added to Pakistan’s water woes, leading to a string of power problems in their industrial and agricultural sector.

Keeping in view the pace at which depletion of glaciers is taking place, many an expert feel that further delay in solving water-sharing problems, at inter-state and intra-state level, will tomorrow bring both India and Pakistan to a stage where they will remain devoid of their resources and with more concrete problems to deal with. So both need to act now. Shaista Tabassum, Assistant Professor, Department of International Relations, Karachi University, who has done research on river water sharing problem between India and Pakistan, in her report published by Regional Centre for Strategic Studies (RCSS), Colombo, suggests the need for strong political will to sort out many of the present and future water problems between India and Pakistan or else tensions will escalate significantly. Charkha Features

Under the Charkha-Sanjoy Ghose Fellowship for Peace Development, 2004-05